Identification of the Causes of the Decline in Iranian Caviar Exports
Abstract
Iran’s caviar industry has experienced significant growth in recent years, with export value increasing from $3.2 million in 2023 to approximately $8 million in the year ending March 2026. However, this industry faces numerous challenges that affect export trends. This article identifies and analyzes the causes of the decline in Iranian caviar exports based on scientific research and trade data. Findings indicate that the most important factors contributing to export decline are: the reduction of sturgeon stocks in the Caspian Sea, international sanctions and banking restrictions, logistical shocks (particularly flight suspensions), CITES quota restrictions, and increasing competition from farmed producers (especially China). Additionally, informal exports through travelers (luggage trade) and problems related to the repatriation of export earnings are among other identified obstacles. Results show that the global trade effect and export revenue instability caused by supply-side factors have had the greatest impact on export decline. Despite these challenges, the development of sturgeon farming farms and increasing domestic production can pave the way for compensating this decline.
1. Introduction
Caviar is one of the most valuable export products in Iran’s fisheries sector, holding special importance as a source of foreign currency and for the development of non-oil exports. However, over recent decades, Iranian caviar exports have experienced numerous fluctuations and a declining trend.
Understanding the causes of this decline is essential for effective policymaking aimed at reviving Iran’s position in the global caviar market. This article, by reviewing scientific research conducted in the field of Iranian caviar exports and analyzing trade data, identifies and prioritizes the most important factors affecting export decline.
2. Main Factors in the Decline of Iranian Caviar Exports
2-1. Decline in Natural Sturgeon Stocks and Domestic Production Reduction
According to research by Feizabadi et al., the decline in sturgeon stocks in the Caspian Sea has been identified as the most important factor affecting the reduction of Iran’s caviar production and exports. Analysis of the caviar export supply function during the period 1991-2006 shows that export revenue instability was mainly caused by supply-side factors, particularly the decline in sturgeon catches.
Factors contributing to the decline in natural stocks include:
Illegal fishing and smuggling: Sturgeon smuggling has had a significant role in reducing production
Habitat destruction and declining broodstock populations
Inefficient management and inadequate monitoring of fishing grounds
2-2. Sanctions and Banking Restrictions
International sanctions have been identified as one of the most important obstacles to Iranian caviar exports. Research by Ghaznavi (2024) using Granger causality tests shows that sanctions have a significant unidirectional effect on caviar export levels. Naser Karami-Rad, Director General of the Office for the Protection and Restoration of Aquatic Genetic Resources at Iran’s Fisheries Organization, has emphasized that sanctions have created problems in monetary and banking transfers for exporters and that removal of these problems would lead to a significant leap in caviar exports.
Sanctions-related restrictions include:
Problems in currency transfers and repatriation of export earnings
Increased transaction costs and reduced access to target markets
Limitations in obtaining international certifications
2-3. CITES Quota Restrictions
After 2004, Iran’s caviar exports experienced a declining trend due to the implementation of a quota system for Caspian Sea caviar exports by the Convention on International Trade in Endangered Species (CITES). According to statistics, Iran’s caviar exports decreased by 37% after the implementation of the quota system and subsequent ban.
According to CITES declared quotas, Iran’s export quota for farmed caviar of the species Acipenser baerii for 2025 was set at 6,000 kg.
2-4. Increasing Competition in the Global Market
The entry of farmed caviar from various countries into global markets is one of the factors that has reduced Iranian caviar exports over the past decade. China, with approximately 30% of the global market share, is Iran’s main competitor. Despite the superior quality of its caviar, particularly the Beluga species, Iran ranks 14th globally in production and market share.
2-5. Logistical and Transportation Shocks
Iran’s caviar industry, due to product perishability and high value, is heavily dependent on air transport. The suspension of international flights in February 2026 reduced Iran’s caviar exports to zero, demonstrating the industry’s vulnerability to logistical shocks. Although exporters partially normalized the situation by rerouting through neighboring countries and re-exporting via third-country airlines.
2-6. Informal Exports (Luggage Trade)
Problems related to the repatriation of export earnings and formal restrictions have led some exporters to use informal routes. According to estimates, several tons of caviar are exported annually through passenger transport (luggage trade). Karami-Rad has stated that each year, due to restrictions on exporters regarding currency repatriation and other issues, some caviar is exported through informal corridors. It is also estimated that approximately 50% of potential exports may be conducted informally by travelers.
2-7. Exchange Rate and Global Prices
According to research by Feizabadi et al., the exchange rate has a positive and significant effect on caviar exports, while there is a significant inverse relationship between global caviar prices and export volume. Additionally, Ghaznavi’s research (2024) confirmed the existence of a long-term relationship between Iran’s export price, average world price, exchange rate, global export volume, and sanctions with caviar exports.
3. Analysis of Effects and Consequences of Export Decline
3-1. Global Trade Effect
Research shows that the global trade effect has had the greatest share in the decline of Iranian caviar exports. This means that structural changes in global caviar trade (including increased production and supply from competitor countries) have had a significant impact on reducing Iran’s market share.
3-2. Export Revenue Instability
Examination of Iranian caviar export revenue instability shows severe fluctuations during the study period, with the main cause attributed to supply-side factors (decline in domestic production).
3-3. Error Correction Coefficient
The error correction coefficient in Ghaznavi’s research (2024) shows that 98% of imbalances in Iran’s caviar exports are resolved in each period, indicating the existence of an efficient adjustment mechanism in the long term.
4. Strategies to Compensate for Export Decline
4-1. Development of Sturgeon Farming
Given the decline in natural stocks, the development of sturgeon farming and strengthening of this sector is the main strategy for compensating for production and export decline. Iran has made significant progress in this area:
The number of active sturgeon farming farms in the first half of 2024 reached 304 farms across 22 provinces
Iran’s caviar production in 2024 reached 25.1 tons, showing 17% growth
4-2. Investment in Research and Development
Given the importance of caviar exports as a source of foreign currency and maintaining the country’s position in international trade, it is recommended that scientific and technical support be provided to research centers to improve productivity and increase the efficiency of sturgeon juvenile production.
4-3. Diversification of Target Markets
Iranian exporters are trying to diversify target markets and reduce dependence on direct air routes. Europe remains the largest target market, with the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, and Belgium being the three main importing countries of Iranian caviar. Iran is attempting to expand its presence in Russian, Turkish, African, and Southeast Asian markets.
4-4. Monitoring and Control of Fishing and Smuggling
To address production decline caused by smuggling and illegal fishing, special monitoring and control of habitats and fishing grounds is essential.
Conclusion
Examination of the causes of the decline in Iranian caviar exports reveals that this phenomenon is the result of the interaction of multiple factors, the most important of which are:
1. Decline in natural stocks: Reduced catches and domestic production due to the decline in sturgeon stocks in the Caspian Sea is the most important factor in export decline.
2. Sanctions and banking restrictions: Problems in monetary transfers and currency repatriation have limited access to target markets.
3. Logistical shocks: The suspension of flights in February 2026 reduced exports to zero, revealing the industry’s vulnerability.
4. CITES quota restrictions: Limitations imposed by the international convention have reduced formal exports.
5. Global competition: The entry of farmed caviar from competitor countries into global markets.
6. Informal exports: Export of caviar through travelers and informal corridors.
Despite these challenges, the development of sturgeon farming in Iran promises a brighter future. Investments made in recent years have gradually come to fruition, and caviar production is increasing exponentially. It is expected that with the continuation of this trend, Iran’s caviar exports will experience significant growth in the coming years.
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